By: Craig DiLouie
The DOE recently updated its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications. This major report models adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general lighting market.
In 2015, LED products made up an estimated 6% of the total installed stock, up from 3% in 2013. The DOE forecasts 30% penetration by 2020 and 59% penetration by 2025. The forecast is partly based on a revised assumed renovation rate, which the DOE increased from 5% to 10%. This increase recognizes the growing market for lighting upgrades in existing construction.
The outdoor stationary market leads in LED penetration, with an estimated 19% penetration in 2015 and projected 57% by 2020. The commercial market is also growing, with an estimated 12% penetration in 2015 and projected 36% by 2020. Strongest penetration has occurred in three markets:
1. A-type lamps, which accounted for 46% of installed LED lighting and 14% of the energy savings.
2. Directional lighting, which accounted for 18% of installed LED lighting and 29% of the energy savings.
3. Linear lighting, which accounted for 16% of installed LED lighting and 20% of the energy savings.
By 2020, annual energy savings from LED lighting will reach about 293MWh. While direct load reduction will generate the majority of these energy savings, lighting controls will account for a significant portion. By 2035, the DOE expects connected lighting and lighting controls to generate one-third of all energy savings.
· Linear lighting: High-performance LED lighting will have a strong impact on this market. Current penetration is 3%. Although fluorescent systems offer efficacies as high as 90lm/W, both linear LED luminaires and replacement lamps already exceed that and are continually improving. By 2020, LED luminaires and lamps will penetrate 16% of the linear luminaire stock, according to the DOE.
· Low- and high-bay lighting: Fluorescent lighting still dominates in this increasingly popular market. Again, LED is poised for rapid growth. LED luminaires penetrated about 6% of the installed stock in 2015, while high-wattage LED retrofit lamps represented less than 1%. Penetration is expected to increase to 38% by 2020 (39% commercial and 35% industrial), according to the DOE.
· Area and roadway lighting: LEDs are well suited to these applications because of the directionality, durability, and longevity of the light source. Metal halide and highpressure sodium dominate this market, but LED has already achieved a significant 21% share of the installed base. The DOE forecasted penetration to increase to 66% by 2020. The DOE noted that as with other markets, there is an initial uptake in LED replacement lamps followed by their decline relative to LED luminaires.
Find the report free at ssl.energy.gov/tech_reports.html